测井、井间地震与地面地震数据联合约束下的地质统计学随机建模方法研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

杨锴  艾迪飞  耿建华 《地球物理学报》2012,55(8):2695-2704

利用能够整合测井信息与井间地震信息的地质统计学随机模拟方法,结合传统的地质统计学反演思路,得到了一种能够同时整合测井、井间地震与地面地震三种先验信息的地质统计学反演与储层建模方法.由于井间射线信息、测井信息与地面地震数据在随机反演与建模过程当中都得到了尊重,因此与传统地质统计学反演仅利用了测井与地面地震数据相比,本文的地质统计学反演与建模方法更充分地利用了先验信息,有效提高了反演的精度,降低了随机建模中的多解性.基于理论数据的测试证实了上述观点.  相似文献   

Fast and slow responses of the North Pacific mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent to global warming     

Lixiao Xu  Shang-Ping Xie  Qinyu Liu 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2013,12(2):216-221

Six coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed for examining the full evolution of the North Pacific mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) under global warming over 400 years following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5. The mode water and STCC first show a sharp weakening trend when the radiative forcing increases, but then reverse to a slow strengthening trend of smaller magnitude after the radiative forcing is stablized. As the radiative forcing increases during the 21st century, the ocean warming is surface-intensified and decreases with depth, strengthening the upper ocean’s stratification and becoming unfavorable for the mode water formation. Moving southward in the subtropical gyre, the shrinking mode water decelerates the STCC to the south. After the radiative forcing is stabilized in the 2070s, the subsequent warming is greater at the subsurface than at the sea surface, destabilizing the upper ocean and becoming favorable for the mode water formation. As a result, the mode water and STCC recover gradually after the radiative forcing is stabilized.  相似文献   

Stochastic dynamic stiffness of a surface footing for offshore wind turbines: Implementing a subset simulation method to estimate rare events     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2014

The purpose of this study, which concerns the stochastic dynamic stiffness of foundations for large offshore wind turbines, is to quantify uncertainties related to the first natural frequency of a turbine supported by a surface footing and to estimate the low event probabilities. Herein, a simple model of a wind turbine structure with equivalent coupled springs at the base is calibrated with the mean soil property values. A semianalytical solution, based on the Green׳s function for a layered half-space is utilized for estimation of foundation responses. Soil elastic modulus and layer depth are considered as random variables with lognormal distributions. The uncertainties are quantified, and the estimation of rare events of the first natural frequency is discussed through an advanced reliability approach based on subset simulation. This analysis represents a first step in the estimation of the safety with respect to the failure of a turbine in the fatigue limit state.  相似文献   

Using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis as weather input data for watershed models   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

Daniel R. Fuka  M. Todd Walter  Charlotte MacAlister  Arthur T. Degaetano  Tammo S. Steenhuis  Zachary M. Easton 《水文研究》2014,28(22):5613-5623

Obtaining representative meteorological data for watershed‐scale hydrological modelling can be difficult and time consuming. Land‐based weather stations do not always adequately represent the weather occurring over a watershed, because they can be far from the watershed of interest and can have gaps in their data series, or recent data are not available. This study presents a method for using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) global meteorological dataset to obtain historical weather data and demonstrates the application to modelling five watersheds representing different hydroclimate regimes. CFSR data are available globally for each hour since 1979 at a 38‐km resolution. Results show that utilizing the CFSR precipitation and temperature data to force a watershed model provides stream discharge simulations that are as good as or better than models forced using traditional weather gauging stations, especially when stations are more than 10 km from the watershed. These results further demonstrate that adding CFSR data to the suite of watershed modelling tools provides new opportunities for meeting the challenges of modelling un‐gauged watersheds and advancing real‐time hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Coupling mechanisms in double sandbar systems. Part 2: impact on alongshore variability of inner‐bar rip channels     

Bruno Castelle  B. G. Ruessink  Philippe Bonneton  Vincent Marieu  Nicolas Bruneau  Timothy D. Price 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(7):771-781

Double sandbar systems are common morphological features along sandy, wave‐dominated, micro‐ to meso‐tidal coastlines. In the companion paper, we demonstrated how various alongshore inner‐bar rip‐channel patterns can develop through morphological coupling to an alongshore‐variable outer bar. The simulated coupling patterns are, however, scarcely observed in the field. Instead, inner‐bar rip channels more often possess remarkably smaller and more variable alongshore length scales, suggesting that coupling mechanisms do not play a substantial role in the overall double‐sandbar dynamics. Here we use a numerical model to show that the relative importance of self‐organization and morphological coupling changes in favour of the latter with an increase in waterdepth variability along the outer‐bar crest. Furthermore, we find that the typical alongshore variability in inner‐bar rip‐channel scale is indicative of a mixture of self‐organization and morphological coupling rather than self‐organization alone. Morphological coupling may thus be more important to understanding and predicting the evolution of inner‐bar rip channels than previously envisaged. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Wind-driven diversion of summer river runoff preconditions the Laptev Sea coastal polynya hydrography: Evidence from summer-to-winter hydrographic records of 2007–2009     

Igor A. Dmitrenko  Sergey A. Kirillov  Thomas Krumpen  Mikhail Makhotin  E. Povl Abrahamsen  Sascha Willmes  Ekaterina Bloshkina  Jens A. Hölemann  Heidemarie Kassens  Carolyn Wegner 《Continental Shelf Research》2010

This paper examines the role of atmospheric forcing in modifying the pathways of riverine water on the Laptev Sea shelf, using summer-to-winter hydrographic surveys from 2007 to 2009. Over the two consecutive winter seasons of 2007–2008 and 2008–2009 in the area of the winter coastal polynya, our data clearly link winter surface salinity fields to the previous summer conditions, with substantially different winter salinity patterns preconditioned by summer atmospheric forcing. In the summer of 2007, dominant along-shore westerly winds in the cyclonic regime force the Lena River runoff to flow eastward. In contrast, in the summer of 2008, dominant along-shore easterly winds over the East Siberian Sea and on-shore northerly winds over the Laptev Sea in the anticyclonic regime lock the riverine water in the vicinity of the Lena Delta. Over the coastal polynya area in the southeastern Laptev Sea these patterns precondition a surface salinity difference of 8–16 psu between the winters of 2008 and 2009. Overall, this indicates a residence time of at least half a year for riverine water on the Laptev Sea shelf. Future climate change associated with an enhanced summer cyclonicity over the eastern Arctic may turn more riverine water eastward along the eastern Siberian coast, resulting in weaker vertical density stratification over the Laptev Sea shelf, with possible impact on the efficiency of vertical mixing and polynya dense water production.  相似文献   

Remote and local forcing of a coastal lagoon: The Virginia Coast Reserve     

Richard P. Mied  William J. Schulz  Robert A. Handler  Charlotte M. Snow  Robert A. Fusina  John H. Porter 《Continental Shelf Research》2010

The effects of local and remote wind forcing of water level heights in the Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR) are examined in order to determine the significant forces governing estuarine motions over subtidal time scales. Recent (1996–2008) data from tide and wind stations in the lagoon, a tide station to the north at Sandy Hook, NJ, and one offshore wind station at the Chesapeake Light Tower are examined. Sea surface height spectrum calculations reveal significant diurnal and semidiurnal tidal effects along with subtidal variations, but a suppressed inertial signal. Sea-surface heights (SSH) with 2–5 day periods at Wachapreague, VA are coherent with those at Sandy Hook and lag them in time, suggesting that southward-propagating continental shelf waves provide subtidal variability within the lagoon. The coherence between lagoon winds and sea surface height, as well as between winds and cross-lagoon sea height gradient, were significant at a relatively small number of frequency and wind direction combinations. The frequencies at which this wind forcing occurs are the tidal and subtidal bands present to the north, so that lagoon winds selectively augment existing SSH signals, but do not generate them. The impact of the wind direction is closely related to the geometry of the lagoon and bounding landmasses. The effect of wind stress is also constrained by geometry in affecting the cross-lagoon water height gradient. Water levels at subtidal frequencies are likely forced by a combination of local wind forcing, remote wind forcing and oceanic forcing modified by the complex topography of the lagoon, shelf, and barrier islands.  相似文献   

Multiple time-scale modelling of the circulation in Torres Strait—Australia     

Frederic Saint-Cast 《Continental Shelf Research》2008

Ocean circulation influences nearly all aspects of the marine ecosystem. This study describes the water circulation patterns on time scales from hours to years across Torres Strait and adjacent gulfs and seas, including the north of the Great Barrier Reef. The tridimensional circulation model incorporated realistic atmospheric and oceanographic forcing, including winds, waves, tides, and large-scale regional circulation taken from global model outputs. Simulations covered a hindcast period of 8 years (i.e. 01/03/1997–31/12/2004), allowing the tidal, seasonal, and interannual flow characteristics to be investigated. Results indicated that the most energetic current patterns in Torres Strait were strongly dominated by the barotropic tide and its spring-neap cycle. However, longer-term flow through the strait was mainly controlled by prevailing winds. A dominant westward drift developed in summer over the southeasterly trade winds season, which then weakened and reversed in winter over the northwesterly monsoon winds season. The seasonal flow through Torres Strait was strongly connected to the circulation in the north of the Great Barrier Reef, but showed little connectivity with the coastal circulation in the Gulf of Papua. Interannual variability in Torres Strait was highest during the monsoon period, reflecting variability in wind forcing including the timing of the monsoon. The characteristics of the circulation were also discussed in relation to fine sediment transport. Turbidity level in Torres Strait is expected to peak at the end of the monsoon, while it is likely to be at a low at the end of the trade season, eventually leading to a critically low bottom light level which constitutes a severe risk of seagrass dieback.  相似文献   

On the cumulant expansion up scaling of ground water contaminant transport equation with nonequilibrium sorption     

Hakan Sirin  Miguel A. Mariño 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(4):551-565

The laboratory-scale ground water transport equation with nonequilibrium sorption reaction subjected to unsteady, nondivergence-free, and nonstationary velocity fields is up-scaled to the field-scale by using the ensemble-averaged equations obtained from the cumulant expansion ensemble-averaging method. It is found that existing ensemble-averaged equations obtained with the help of the cumulant expansion method for the system of linear partial differential equations are not second-order exact. Although the cumulant expansion methodology is designed for noncommuting operators, it is found that there are still commudativity requirements that need to be satisfied by the functions and constants exist in the coefficient matrix of the system of ordinary/partial differential equations. A reversibility requirement, which covers the commudativity requirements, is also proposed when applying the cumulant expansion method to a system of partial differential equations/a partial differential equation. The significance of the new velocity correction obtained in this study due to the applied second-order exact cumulant expansion is investigated on a numerical example with a linear trend in the distribution coefficient. It is found that the effect of the new velocity correction can be significant enough to affect the maximum concentration values and the plume center of mass in the case of a trending distribution coefficient in a physically heterogeneous environment.  相似文献   

Phase synchronization of slips by periodical (tangential and normal) mechanical forcing in the spring-slider model     

Nodar Varamashvili  Tamaz Chelidze  Otar Lursmanashvili 《Acta Geophysica》2008,56(2):357-371

In the present study, the character of slip regimes under weak external periodical (tangential and normal) mechanical forcing has been investigated in a laboratory spring-slider system. We report the experimental evidence of phase synchronization in a slip dynamics, induced by the external periodic mechanical impact. At certain conditions, we have a stick-slip effect in the spring-slider system. To describe this effect, we can use rate-and state-dependent friction law. In our experiments, the slip events are distinguished by acoustic emission bursts, which are generated by slider displacement. In addition to drag, the weak variable mechanical forcing was superimposed either tangential or normal to the slip plane. With increasing external forcing one can see increasing phase synchronization of the first arrivals (onsets) of stick-slip generated acoustic pulses. The grouping of the onsets in a certain phase of the external periodic forcing is considered as a hallmark of the phase synchronization. The onsets of stick-slip pulses in the case of normal mechanical forcing are shifted relative to onsets in the case of tangential forcing.  相似文献